Life is cheapUsing mortality bonds to hedge aggregate mortality risk

Life is cheap

Using mortality bonds to hedge aggregate mortality risk

Friedberg

Leora

Friedberg, Leora

Author

Webb

Anthony

Webb, Anthony

Author

text

working paper

Chestnut Hill, Mass. Center for Retirement Research at Boston College20052005monographic

Chestnut Hill, Mass.

Center for Retirement Research at Boston College

2005

monographic

Englisheng

English

eng

electronicapplication/pdfborn digital

electronic

application/pdf

born digital

Using the Lee-Carter mortality model, we quantify aggregate mortality risk, the risk that annuitants might live longer than predicted by the model. We calculate that a markup of 4.3 percent on an annuity premium, or else shareholders capital equal to 4.3 percent of the expected present value of annuity payments, would reduce the probability of insolvency resulting from uncertain aggregate mortality trends to five percent, and a markup of 6.1 percent would reduce the probability of insolvency to one percent. Using the same model, we find evidence that the projection scale that the insurance industry commonly refers to underestimates aggregate mortality improvements. Consequently, annuities that are priced on that projections scale without any conservative margin will be substantially underpriced.

Insurance companies could deal with aggregate mortality risk by transferring it to the financial markets through newly-available mortality-contingent bonds. We calculate the returns that investors would have obtained on such bonds had they been available previously, and the historical covariance between these bond returns and the growth in per-capita consumption. Using the Consumption Capital Asset Pricing Model (CCAPM), we determine the risk premium that investors would have required on such bonds. At plausible coefficients of risk aversion, investors should be able to hedge aggregate mortality risk via such bonds at very low cost.

Leora Friedberg and Anthony Webb.

CRR WP2005-13

CRR WP

2005-13

http://crr.bc.edu/images/stories/Working_Papers/wp_2005-13.pdf

MChBEnglisheng

MChB

Englisheng

English

eng