Supply-side consequences of Social Security reformImpacts on saving and employment

Supply-side consequences of Social Security reform

Impacts on saving and employment

Bosworth

Barry

Bosworth, Barry

Author

Burtless

Gary

Burtless, Gary

Author

text

working paper

Chestnut Hill, Mass. Center for Retirement Research at Boston College20042004monographic

Chestnut Hill, Mass.

Center for Retirement Research at Boston College

2004

monographic

Englisheng

English

eng

electronicapplication/pdfborn digital

electronic

application/pdf

born digital

Pension reform can potentially increase saving and improve incentives for labor force participation later in life. We investigate whether these effects are likely to occur and the potential size of the effects on private and total saving and on employment past age 55. Our survey of existing evidence and new empirical analysis focus on three issues: The possible reduction in other government saving if more assets are accumulated in a public retirement program; the reduction in non-pension private saving if assets are accumulated in new private retirement accounts; and the increase in old-age labor supply that could occur if Social Security benefits are reduced.

We find mixed evidence that faster accumulation of assets in public or private retirement funds would produce higher public and private saving. Using the most optimistic estimates of the public saving response to faster accumulation in public retirement funds, we find advance funding will cause a big increase in aggregate saving and future national income. However, international evidence suggests governments are likely to offset a large percentage of public pension fund accumulation by reducing saving in other government accounts. The evidence on private saving suggests that savers tend to offset faster accumulation of assets in pension accounts with lower saving in non-pension accounts. Most empirical estimates of the labor supply response to Social Security reductions imply the response will be small. Even using unrealistically high estimates of responsiveness, we find that a one-third cut in benefits will add less than 3 percent to the future labor force.

Barry Bosworth and Gary Burtless.

CRR WP2004-1

CRR WP

2004-1

http://crr.bc.edu/images/stories/Working_Papers/wp_2004-01.pdf

MChBEnglisheng

MChB

Englisheng

English

eng